Market Forecasting and Microeconomics Consultant.
Simulation modeling dynamic systems operations research methods applied to business & micro-economics.
MJMcCann Consulting
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Market Forecasting in Real Cases
My experience with micro-economics and business dynamics was triggered by the work of Jay Forrester on Industrial Dynamics, which took advantage of experience and knowledge in dynamic systems behaviour, derived from engineering work. It was applied to problems or market behaviour, looking at the growth of markets and the corresponding effect on a corporation participating in them.
In some cases the real means of influencing the customers wasn't always apparent, nor, perhaps, the persistent effects of brand loyalty or the effects of product lifetime and replacement choices. Such effects could be incorporated in dynamic models and the effects checked against previous experience to merge a common sense understanding with an engineering approach to making models internally consistent and quantified. Then, given some confidence that the key processes had been identified, we could move on to making forecasts.
A simple example was a projection of demand for retail paint. Instead of taking recent history and making a statistical extrapolation, or a marketing manager's optimistic forecasts, we looked at the surface areas to be painted (housing stock) and the lifetimes of paints on walls to make a projection for the market. It was good enough for resource and capital planning for a decade.

Example Applications

  • the growth of the UK motor industry while it was still in a post WWII transient state,
  • the behaviour of a market for ethical pharmaceutical products,
  • the long term development of the retail wallcoverings (paint, wall paper etc) market,
  • the demographic driving mechanism for a housing market over a twenty year period,
  • the value of advertising in a TV driven retail market
  • corporate cash flow projections and the strategic implications of project approval and success,
  • the policy for allocating resources to either research or to development in a science driven industry.
  • Investigating the effect of business growth on career prospects for established employees and new recriuts.
  • Underlying common theme
    In each of these applications the key was being able to describe the components of behaviour in mathematical terms and synthesise a model of the whole system to see how it worked.

    Working with Clients
    In developing and exploiting these micro-economic models and market analyses, a necessary step in the process is making sure the client, the owner of the problem, the decision maker is actively involved so that the model becomes a organized, internally consistent statement of his or her understanding of the interplay of forces in the market or business sector.
    That alone is not sufficient, but the next step of being able to use the model comes from 'playing' with it to get the answers to "what if?" questions. So, we have produced models that can give graphical results or generate business accounts, whatever the client is comfortable with. We can use powerful Mathematical tools but the client need not be concerned with that aspect. McCann's experience in interacting with clients at all levels and in all business functions will make the interaction easy.

    TimeScales and Complexity
    My experience with problems over these time scales is that people rarely expand their time horizons far enough to see the whole picture. Even if they try, they tend to miss the complexity created by interaction effects and think more in terms of extrapolating, sometimes with statistical models, from the recent past. My (MJMcC) observation is that the demographics and the compelling force of reality can be quantified to make a big improvement in perception. You only have to contact me to get help!

    Dr Mike McCann is a Life-Member of the IEEE, a Fellow of the IET and a Chartered Engineer and a life member of SigmaXi but as well as the engineering and science background that provides the underpinning analytical skill, he has held planning management and operational research positions in industry (Fortune 500). Resume/CV

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    About Dr McCann
    Summary
    Dr M.J.McCann
    Training Courses
    Bristol University Contacting me
    Contact in UK
    Location USA
    Philosophy
    Software Tools
    Fees
    Confidentiality

    Click to Applications PageApplications

    Business & Commerce
    TV Advertising
    Drugs Competition
    Housing Demand
    Automobiles Demand
    Wallcoverings Battle
    Cash Flow
    Human Resources
    Project Management
    Patent Analysis

    Chemical Industry
    Cooling Tower
    Fermentation
    Polymer Process
    Heat exchange
    Supercritical Fluid
    Distributed parameter
    Toxic gas allocation

    Electrical
    Control systems
    Initiation systems
    Ferrite Filters
    Microstrip Antennas
    Lightning

    Production & Process
    Automated manufacture
    Crimp and Press
    Glass making
    Glass molding
    Glass to metal seals
    Heat exchanger
    Helium Leak Testing
    RF Soldering
    Vacuum web coating

    Click to Applications PageApplications.

    Invitation. McCann can help if you have a design or operational problem that needs some technical support that is outside your team's experience, some quantitative assessment of what is really the cause of the difficulties, some design alternatives or just a fresh look by an intelligent interrogator.
    If you have a problem with the behaviour of a market sector, plant, process or item of equipment and would like to get a quantitative handle on it to improve yield or optimise performance, then contact me. I'm always ready to give a little time to discuss a new puzzle, in confidence, of course. We'll only worry about fees when there is some defined work. I can be flexible about how I work with you.
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    Dr M.J.McCann,
    POB 902,
    Chadds Ford PA
    19317 USA.
    T: 1 302 654-2953
    M: 1 302 377-1508 (Cell)
    E: mjmccann@iee.org
    Request. Please let me know how you found this website and your interests by following this feedback link. Thank you Date: 2014.08.24
    File: markets.htm